Thailand, France and Germany are expected to lose about $47 billion each due to the contraction in tourism.
The global tourism sector could lose at least $1.2 trillion, or 1.5 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP), after being stranded for nearly four months due to the coronavirus pandemic, UNCTAD said in a report released July 1.
Major tourist destinations such as Thailand, France and Germany are expected to lose about $47 billion each due to the contraction in tourism.
As a percentage of GDP, Thailand is the second most affected country in the world with a projected reduction in GDP of 9% (after Jamaica, 11%), and the third in absolute terms ($47.7 billion).
For France, the loss of tourism revenue due to the COVID-19 (47.2 billion dollars) represents about 1.6% of GDP.
2.8% to 4.2% of world GDP
The United Nations trade and development agency warned that the loss could reach $2.2 trillion or 2.8% of world GDP if the paralysis in international tourism lasts eight months, in line with the expected decline in tourism predicted by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
UNCTAD estimates the losses in the worst-case scenario, a 12-month interruption of international tourism, at $3.3 trillion or 4.2% of world GDP.
Developing countries could suffer the largest GDP losses. Jamaica and Thailand stand out, losing 11% and 9% of GDP respectively in the most optimistic scenario of UNCTAD's estimates. Other tourism hotspots such as Kenya, Egypt and Malaysia could lose more than 3% of their GDP.